The hottest fundamentals are stable, and Shanghai

Fundamentals are stable, Shanghai oil is stable and bullish

Shanghai oil returned to more than 4500 yuan/ton after the Spring Festival, and fluctuated narrowly between yuan/ton, while the center of gravity moved slowly upward. The CPI index released on March 11 rose more than expected, triggering the expectation of the central bank to further implement the regulation policy. Most domestic futures fell sharply, but Shanghai oil showed great resistance to decline. We believe that supported by the strong supply and demand side, the space below Shanghai oil is limited. If the position is enlarged, Shanghai oil may rise further

from a macro perspective, the negative impact of the market on China's regulatory policies has been digested, while the loose monetary policies in Europe and the United States will remain for a long time, so overseas stock markets and futures markets continue to be well supported. On the other hand, the euro zone crisis is expected to be eased, which may weaken the strong trend of the dollar and alleviate the negative pressure on commodity prices. Recently, the negative correlation between commodity prices and the trend of the US dollar index has weakened, and the negative impact of a stronger US dollar on commodities needs to adjust the parameters of the control system at any time (P). The promotion of the economic recovery process has also gradually improved the demand for crude oil. The advantage Intelligence Agency (EIA) of the US energy Jinan assaying universal hardware and software said in its latest monthly report that it is expected that the economic growth in 2010 will be higher than expected, The world's average daily oil demand will increase by 1.5 million barrels to 85.51 million barrels, 300000 barrels higher than the forecast last month. The increased demand will further reduce oil inventories. It is estimated that OECD commercial inventories fell to 2.67 billion barrels by the end of 2009. U.S. oil inventories have gradually declined, and crude oil and gasoline inventories have fallen back to normal levels

at present, the international crude oil is still fluctuating in the range of USD/barrel, but the price focus is gradually moving upward. In the second quarter, the United States will enter the peak period of gasoline consumption, and the international crude oil price is likely to break through the previous high and move up the operating range to USD/barrel

domestic fuel oil supply continued to be tight after the holiday. China's fuel oil import in February is expected to be about 1.2 million tons, with a month on month drop of 100000 tons or 7.69%. The reduction of fuel oil imports will support the spot price of fuel oil in China. In terms of demand, most factories have officially started, and the demand for industrial fuel oil has gradually rebounded. In terms of power plants, the demand for low sulfur fuel oil from gas turbine and electric power plants in South China increased, stimulating the spot price of fuel oil in South China to rise after the holiday. Hua must add appropriate fixtures; There are also some ultra hard materials. In the Eastern market, the oil transfer raw materials are tightening, and the downstream demand has not recovered significantly, but the spot price remains firm. On the other hand, Sinopec and PetroChina have made great efforts to push the price of refined oil recently, which has significantly supported the price of fuel oil. Overall, there is still room for further growth in domestic fuel oil spot

on the whole, we believe that Shanghai oil is stable and bullish. There is strong support for the 1005 contract at 4500 yuan/ton, and radical investors can rely on this support to go long. If Shanghai oil fell back to the 430 yuan/ton range of market-oriented operation due to the impact of crude oil callback and negative impact on the peripheral market, it can intervene in the medium and long-term multiple orders

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