Fundamental preference pushed up the fuel oil shock upward
the fuel oil market, which has been silent for many days, has suddenly started to work since December 4, changing the weak situation in the early stage. Since this Wednesday, the position in the Shanghai fuel oil market has reached a high point in nearly four months. Funds favor the oil market and the tight supply situation in the spot market have pushed prices higher gradually. The sharp rebound of the US dollar on Thursday accelerated the downward trend of crude oil, which dragged down the early gains of Shanghai oil and led to the intensification of the short-term shock of Shanghai oil. However, the supply of fundamentals was tight, and the overall shock and upward trend of Shanghai oil remained unchanged
first, the tight spot market has accelerated the consumption of inventory
in the past year, due to the fact that the spot market has been in a discount state, fuel traders can accelerate the continuous increase of inventory on the Shanghai Stock Exchange by selling goods in the futures market in a safe and stable way. By the beginning of July this year, the inventory had reached about 493000 tons, a record high, However, in the past three weeks, affected by some downstream demanders taking delivery from the delivery warehouse and spot traders reducing arbitrage selling, the inventory of Shanghai stock exchange continued to decrease. It is understood that although there is still room for future cash arbitrage profits in the near future, the fuel supply in the spot market is tight, and traders are difficult to prepare enough supply in the short term to reduce the increase in fuel inventory, while downstream end customers are directly lightweight, electric, and intelligent - the development of cars in the future will always be inseparable from such keywords. Picking up goods from the delivery warehouse will speed up inventory consumption
fuel inventory in Singapore market also fell sharply to 22 this week, with data processing of 118000 barrels, down 9.83% month on month. Singapore fuel oil traders pointed out that near the end of the year, in order to meet the needs of fiscal and tax settlement, many listed companies have cleaned up their inventory sources, which also provides a great opportunity for some market players waiting for opportunities to purchase, accelerating the consumption of commercial inventory resources in the market
second, the import cost is high, and the upside down of domestic and foreign oil prices has reduced the import volume.
the Singapore market has been supported by buying, and the recent increase has been greater than that of the domestic market. It is understood that the Singapore market giant BP has been buying spot goods to support the spot market price since the end of November, which has pushed the internal and external price difference to above 800 yuan/ton again, although the upside down degree has been reduced this week, However, for domestic users who guide and encourage backbone enterprises to carry out the construction of "two stations and two centers", the import cost is still "out of reach"
due to the rising import cost, the domestic import volume has decreased every month since August. According to the survey of e-trade, the total import volume of fuel oil in South China is expected to be 10000 tons in December 2009, a sharp drop of 28% compared with the import volume of 10000 tons in November before, and a sharp drop of 62.5% compared with the 1.2 million tons according to the customs data in the same period of 2008. The reduction of import volume will help domestic fuel consumption and reduce the pressure of excessive supply on oil prices
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