The hottest fundamentals are sometimes cold or hot

Fundamentals are cold and hot, and the futures price of natural rubber is in a dilemma.

since November last year, natural rubber has performed eye-catching, and the futures price has almost soared, with a monthly increase of more than 10%; The recent performance is even stronger. Even if the surrounding financial markets are volatile, the futures price remains strong. The author believes that after the launch of stock index futures, bulk commodities will gradually return to the fundamentals of Chinese enterprises who are talented enough to produce their own plastic extrusion machinery. But for Tianjiao, the fundamentals are double-edged sword. At present, the stronger fundamentals drive the market to new highs continuously. Once there is a change, the market turning point will be random

the seasonal market was reflected in advance

although Tianjiao fell sharply on the 13th due to the negative impact of the central bank's increase in the reserve ratio, on the whole, this round of gains is still eye-catching. The reason is that tight supply is the main driver of the rise in rubber prices

first of all, Yunnan agricultural reclamation has stopped cutting since late November last year. At present, the domestic production areas have completely stopped cutting and entered the off-season of supply. In terms of land reclamation, there is not much cash in hand. Traders are bullish in the aftermarket, reluctant to sell their inventories, and their enthusiasm for hoarding goods is high. From the data released by the General Administration of Customs recently, we can find spider 13. Technical data: operation manual, certificate of conformity, packing list, warranty card 1 set of silk traces. Data show that in December 2009, China's natural rubber import volume was 180000 tons, up 50% month on month and 63.6% year-on-year. Secondly, due to weather factors, the supply of main production areas in Southeast Asia in peak season has been weakened. November was originally the peak supply season in Southeast Asia, but the continuous and rare heavy rain seriously affected the rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and other countries, resulting in a weak peak season and tight supply. Statistics from the association of natural rubber producing countries (ANRPC) showed that in November 2009, the rubber production in Malaysia fell seriously, the rubber production in Thailand and Indonesia also fell, and the downward trend of natural rubber supply intensified. Up to now, the spot price of uss3 rubber in Thailand has risen sharply to 93 08 baht. Therefore, under the resonance of the sluggish off-season and foreign peak seasons, the tight supply has supported Tianjiao to soar all the way, and the seasonal market is likely to be reflected in advance

the replenishment of tire dealers is imminent.

last year, with the strong boost of national stimulus policies, the depressed global automotive industry took the lead in turning points. China's auto market has recovered strongly, becoming the world's largest auto market. According to the latest statistics of China Automobile Association, in 2009, China's automobile production and sales were 13.791 million and 13.6448 million, with a year-on-year increase of 48.30% and 46.15%. Among them, in December, the production and sales of automobiles increased by 10% and 6% month on month, 145% year on year, and the gracels experiment has shown that 92%, once again hitting a record high. Authoritative experts predict that China's auto market will continue to lead the global auto market in 2010, and maintain a growth rate of 10% - 15%

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